Hendry’s Eclectica Fund, which posted losses in and , last year made a wager on the currency rising that helped the fund gain Eclectica Fund, a global macro hedge fund established in October .. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Year. Eclectica Asset Management LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority / Private & Confidential. 2 Hugh Hendry, April

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Women in Love, Investors in Love.

Hugh Hendry Full Eclectica Letter on China’s Impending Collapse

Now with China having been on such an expansionary tear, it may not surprise you to hear that finished Chinese steel prices today trade below their production cost. No sex, no drugs, no wine, 2021 woman, no fun, no sin, no wonder it’s dark Everyone around me is a total stranger.

In the US, however, things are very different. Now this is potentially a huge headache owing to the massive projected American budget deficits for this year and next, and the Treasury’s desire to extend the maturity of the existing stock of government bonds which is becoming perilously short dated. The ability of fractional reserve banking to leverage this liquidity many times over provided the apri, mo-jo to instigate ever higher commodity prices.

Hugh Hendry – Wikipedia

It is my contention that the leverage of the economy is only tenable if interest rates stay low and yet, whilst I believe some of them agree, they still fervently expect a rise.


So the physical developments in the western steel markets should raise some concern. They understand that it is only the US that is willing to embrace the benefits of comparative advantage that arise from international trade.

He is an excellent filter for me, and this week’s Outside the Box offering is no exception. The Yellow Brick Road Consider another economy needing to be rebuilt: Many countries that relied heavily on exports as a growth strategy are now geared up to provide goods and services to heavily indebted countries that no longer have the will or the means to buy them.

Hugh Hendry Full Eclectica Letter on China’s Impending Collapse

Lawrence’s coal miner Gerald from the novel Women in Love, who, just days eclectcia his father’s funeral, steals into his former lover’s bedroom and, ” Blog Subscription Form Email Notifications. Heady stuff, but not without precedent: John Mauldin’s Outside the Box. This zero-hour for America has perhaps arrived sooner than many had anticipated.

This is why China’s mad dash for commodities and its investment splurge this year is so worrying. The fund is going to, “get rich or die tryin'”. And remember that investments in fixed capital formation think new aluminium plants et al.

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I keep hearing that a dollar devaluation would paril matters. So it is not inconceivable, at least in my mind, that financial institutions, and notable amongst them the nation’s pension and endowment schemes, could be motivated by another basic human emotion, namely fear for their own survival, to snap up all these new government bonds.


This was done even at the expense of domestic American job losses. However, a nominal rate of 4.

Hugh Hendry

Is this not a reincarnation of the trade of the brothers Hunt? As you know, Funf am in the deflation camp for now, and we own a modest amount of government bonds and a series of asymmetric bets which would receive a boost from a return to gund form of risk aversion.

We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. We recently had a very bearish meeting with the Norwegian company Norsk Hydro. Consider the aluminium market.

Perhaps in the end supply will create its own demand. Misbehaviour is all about curiosity, how you invoke and think about change, which is very necessary in the management of money.

My intellectual foes, on the other hand, are adamant that long duration government bonds are a short. And, fundamentally that argument still suffers from the dearth of any other major economy showing any willingness to sacrifice its short term economic standing for the longer-term mutual benefit of having enriched trading partners.